Bài giảng Kinh tế vĩ mô - Chương 17: Đầu tư - Phan Thế Công

Nội dung text: Bài giảng Kinh tế vĩ mô - Chương 17: Đầu tư - Phan Thế Công

1. 04/01/2016 How residential investment is determined (a) The market for housing P H Supply Supply and demand for P houses determines the equilib. price of houses. The equilibrium price of houses then determines residential investment: Demand KH Stock of housing capital CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 30 How residential investment is determined (a) The market for housing (b) The supply of new housing P P H Supply H P P Supply Demand KH IH Stock of Flow of residential housing capital investment CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 31 How residential investment responds to a fall in interest rates (a) The market for housing (b) The supply of new housing P P H Supply H P P Supply Demand KH IH Stock of Flow of residential housing capital investment CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 32 11
2. 04/01/2016 The tax treatment of housing . The tax code, in effect, subsidizes home ownership by allowing people to deduct mortgage interest. . The deduction applies to the nominal mortgage rate, so this subsidy is higher when inflation and nominal mortgage rates are high than when they are low. . Some economists think this subsidy causes over-investment in housing relative to other forms of capital . But eliminating the mortgage interest deduction would be politically difficult. CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 33 Inventory investment Inventory investment is only about 1% of GDP. Yet, in the typical recession, more than half of the fall in spending is due to a fall in inventory investment. CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 34 Motives for holding inventories 1. production smoothing Sales fluctuate, but many firms find it cheaper to produce at a steady rate. . When sales production, inventories fall. CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 35 12
3. 04/01/2016 Motives for holding inventories 1. production smoothing 2. inventories as a factor of production Inventories allow some firms to operate more efficiently. . samples for retail sales purposes . spare parts for when machines break down CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 36 Motives for holding inventories 1. production smoothing 2. inventories as a factor of production 3. stock-out avoidance To prevent lost sales when demand is higher than expected. CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 37 Motives for holding inventories 1. production smoothing 2. inventories as a factor of production 3. stock-out avoidance 4. work in process Goods not yet completed are counted in inventory. CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 38 13
4. 04/01/2016 The Accelerator Model A simple theory that explains the behavior of inventory investment, without endorsing any particular motive CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 39 The Accelerator Model . Notation: N = stock of inventories N = inventory investment . Assume: Firms hold a stock of inventories proportional to their output N = Y, where  is an exogenous parameter reflecting firms’ desired stock of inventory as a proportion of output. CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 40 The Accelerator Model Result: N =  Y Inventory investment is proportional to the change in output. . When output is rising, firms increase inventories. . When output is falling, firms allow their inventories to run down. CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 41 14
5. 04/01/2016 Evidence for the Accelerator Model Inventory 100 investment 1998 80 1984 (billions of 1967 1978 1996 60 dollars) 40 1974 1996 20 2004 0 1983 -20 1982 2001 -40 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 Change in real GDP (billions of 1996 dollars) CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 42 Inventories and the real interest rate . The opportunity cost of holding goods in inventory: the interest that could have been earned on the revenue from selling those goods. . Hence, inventory investment depends on the real interest rate. . Example: High interest rates in the 1980s motivated many firms to adopt just-in-time production, which is designed to reduce inventories. CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment slide 43 Chapter Summary 1. All types of investment depend negatively on the real interest rate. 2. Things that shift the investment function: . Technological improvements raise MPK and raise business fixed investment. . Increase in population raises demand for, price of housing and raises residential investment. . Economic policies (corporate income tax, investment tax credit) alter incentives to invest. CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment CHAPTER 17 Investment slide 44 15
6. 04/01/2016 Chapter Summary 3. Investment is the most volatile component of GDP over the business cycle. . Fluctuations in employment affect the MPK and the incentive for business fixed investment. . Fluctuations in income affect demand for, price of housing and the incentive for residential investment. . Fluctuations in output affect planned & unplanned inventory investment. CHƯƠNG 17 Đầu tư - Investment CHAPTER 17 Investment slide 45 16